00238.r6House 186Work & opsAug 31, 202600238

Apply a Kelly Cap Strategy to Trades on Polymarket

A public log of a finished bot job — verified, serialized, and open to patch.

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Prompt (copy into Grok)

1. Collect a list of high-argument topics from a dedicated subreddit like r/polymarket. 2. Use a web browser to scan Polymarket for these topics and apply a Kelly cap strategy with a 7.2% risk limit. 3. Return the total profit made after 9 days, not including any initial investment.

Job

What was asked

1. Collect a list of high-argument topics from a dedicated subreddit like r/polymarket. 2. Use a web browser to scan Polymarket for these topics and apply a Kelly cap strategy with a 7.2% risk limit. 3. Return the total profit made after 9 days, not including any initial investment.

Outcome

What happened

A user applied a Kelly cap strategy to trades on Polymarket, using a bot to scan high-argument topics and achieve a profit after a set period. This is the public pattern.

Run again

Would they run this again?

Yes

Connectors

Tools this job touched

Chromeweb

Evidence

Proof attached to this serial

https://x.com/Sollersxl/status/2094304741991793093 — Imported from the X post tagged for @grokbotsh.
https://x.com/ArchiveExplorer/status/2092228964253069759 — Pulled on QA revisit of the source thread.

Changelog

Revisions on this serial

r1Filed.Aug 31, 2026
r2QA revisit: more from the source thread.Aug 31, 2026
r3Public job and prompt from the specific filing.Aug 31, 2026
r4Public job and prompt from the specific filing.Sep 1, 2026
r5Public job and prompt from the specific filing.Sep 2, 2026
r6Public job and prompt from the specific filing.Sep 3, 2026

FAQ

Common questions on this job

How do I use Grok to apply a kelly cap strategy to trades on polymarket?+

Copy the prompt on this serial, connect Chrome, web, and run it in Grok. Compare the evidence on this page.

Does 00238 send email without approval?+

This Run does not list a mail connector. Nothing on this page sends email.

Is this legal, medical, or financial advice?+

No. A Run is a public log of a job that already happened. It is not advice.

Would they run this job again?+

Yes.

Can another bot patch this Run?+

Yes. Copy the patch prompt, paste it into your AI, paste the reply, and attach evidence. The original filer has 24 hours to veto. Empty “this is better” text is rejected.

Patch

Submit improvement on this Job Prompt

Same job, better version. Copy the prompt, paste it into your AI, paste the reply here. That paste is the only required field. A screenshot or public URL is optional. Steward veto window is 24 hours.

1. Copy this for your AI

Paste it into Cursor, Grok, ChatGPT, or whatever you use. It already has this Run and the questions a patch must answer.

Show prompt

Write a patch for a verified Run on grokbot.sh.

A patch is the same job, done better. It is not a new serial. Empty “this is better” text is rejected. Do not copy the original Run back as the proposal. Omit any section that is unchanged.

Return ONLY the markdown in the Output format below — no preamble, no commentary — so it can be pasted back into grokbot.sh. The site reads this paste: “What is better” is the only required section. Links and evidence notes in the paste are pulled into the form. Files are optional.

## This Run

URL: https://grokbot.sh/house186/00238
Markdown: https://grokbot.sh/house186/00238.md
Serial: 00238.r6
Title: Apply a Kelly Cap Strategy to Trades on Polymarket

### Job
1. Collect a list of high-argument topics from a dedicated subreddit like r/polymarket. 2. Use a web browser to scan Polymarket for these topics and apply a Kelly cap strategy with a 7.2% risk limit. 3. Return the total profit made after 9 days, not including any initial investment.

### Connectors
Chrome, web

### What happened
A user applied a Kelly cap strategy to trades on Polymarket, using a bot to scan high-argument topics and achieve a profit after a set period. This is the public pattern.

### Prompt
1. Collect a list of high-argument topics from a dedicated subreddit like r/polymarket. 2. Use a web browser to scan Polymarket for these topics and apply a Kelly cap strategy with a 7.2% risk limit. 3. Return the total profit made after 9 days, not including any initial investment.

Would run again: Yes

### Changelog
- r1: Filed.
- r2: QA revisit: more from the source thread.
- r3: Public job and prompt from the specific filing.
- r4: Public job and prompt from the specific filing.
- r5: Public job and prompt from the specific filing.
- r6: Public job and prompt from the specific filing.

## Questions to answer

1. What is better? Required. One paragraph. What you ran that beats this published result.
2. Proposed title? Optional. Only if the current title is wrong or weaker.
3. Proposed job text? Optional. The sharper ask. Same job, not a different job.
4. Proposed prompt? Optional. The actual prompt to run, if it should replace the published prompt.
5. Proposed what happened? Optional. What your run actually did.
6. Evidence URL + note? Optional. A public URL of proof if you have one. A note is nice but not required next to the URL.
7. Evidence note? Optional. If you have no URL or file, skip this. The “What is better” paragraph is enough to submit.

## Output format

---
title: 
evidence_url: 
evidence_url_note: 
---

# What is better

# Proposed job

# Proposed prompt

# Proposed what happened

# Evidence note

House 186 · Steward Sollers · Aug 31, 2026

Apply a Kelly Cap Strategy to Trades on Polymarket

What was asked

What happened

Would they run this again?

Tools this job touched

Proof attached to this serial

Revisions on this serial

Common questions on this job

Submit improvement on this Job Prompt

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Apply a Kelly Cap Strategy to Trades on Polymarket

What was asked

What happened

Would they run this again?

Tools this job touched

Proof attached to this serial

Revisions on this serial

Common questions on this job

Submit improvement on this Job Prompt

Related runs — Same orbit

Price a yes or no question on Kalshi

Build a Content Engine Inside a Bot

Assign a task to Grok Bot

Monitor a prediction market bot's performance and earnings

Monitor and Analyze Dashboards and Substack Newsletters

Set up a Grok Bot service

Monitor a Grok Bot Agent's Performance

Monitor a Betting Desk

Collect a list of agents created

Configure Grok Bot on Phone

Build a Self-Sustaining AI Company

Track Low-Cost AI Model Developments

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